I never really thought I had a serious chance at the NSF GRFP, but I had to apply anyway.
I actually got three reviewers, so did better than some. But still.
Reviewer #1: Very Good/Excellent.
It was the next two who torpedoed my chances: they both gave me “Fair/Good”.
I was faulted for not having any publications. I knew that would be a serious negative for me. I was also faulted for not having enough methodology in my proposal. Given that I was switching fields (my only previous research experience was in theoretical chemistry, for crying out loud), I guess this should not be a surprise.